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Wales needs an average of 8,300 new homes a year between now and 2024, the Welsh government has said.
A statistical report published today estimates the country requires between 6,700 and 9,700 new homes annually over the next five years to keep up with demand.
After that, housing need is projected to slow over the next 15 years, with around 4,000 new homes needed each year by the mid-2030s.
Work began on 6,037 new homes in Wales in 2017/18, down 12% on the previous year.
In a statement, housing and local government minister Julie James said the new estimates – which replace those produced by the Public Policy Institute for Wales in 2015 – will be used to develop new housing and planning policies.
However, she said the estimates “should not be used as a housing target and cannot forecast exactly what is going to happen in the future”.
She added: “These estimates are part of the evidence base to inform the development of local or national targets which need to take account of national, regional and local policy and practical considerations to reach a view on the level of housing that can actually be delivered within an area.”
An independent review of affordable housing policy in Wales is due to publish its recommendations in April.
Stuart Ropke, chief executive of Community Housing Cymru, said: “Today’s report shows that there remains a significant challenge to deliver the homes Wales needs in the coming years.
“Housing associations have an ambition to deliver 75,000 homes by 2036, and with continued and consistent support from Welsh government, we are confident we can make that ambition a reality.”
Housing associations expect to build more than 3,000 homes next year, after a 26% drop to just 1,876 in 2017/18.
The review will examine "whether more can be done to increase the supply of affordable housing in Wales, maximising the resources available", the Welsh government has said.
It will be chaired by Lynn Pamment, Cardiff senior partner and government & public services lead at PwC.
The Welsh government says the review will:
The review will be expected to issue a report and make recommendations by the end of April 2019