Temporary accommodation use in Wales could fall by 83% with right intervention, report finds
The number of people expected to experience “severe” homelessness in Wales by 2041 could be halved through a series of interventions by ministers in Senedd and Westminster, a report has claimed.
Under the proposals, temporary accommodation use in Wales could fall by 83% of its current expected level, according to the new study by charity Crisis that analysed the cumulative effect of 11 suggested policy measures.
A comprehensive and appropriately sequenced policy reform programme is modelled as capable of reducing core homelessness in Wales by half against the current baseline scenario by 2041.
This scenario would see core homelessness rates 22% below the 2019 level. Furthermore, unsuitable temporary accommodation would be down by 83%, hostel use down by 54%, rough sleeping would be reduced by 45% and sofa surfing down by 39%.
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The Homelessness Monitor: Wales 2025, commissioned by Crisis and delivered by Heriot-Watt University, was based on a review of existing literature, interviews with 15 stakeholders, statistical analysis and modelling, and a survey of local authorities.
The report looked at 11 potential policy interventions. These included raising and indexing Local Housing Allowance (LHA) to median rent levels in all councils, increasing the share of net social lettings going to homeless households by 60% and delivering two-thirds more homes for social rent, particularly to replace the need to use hostels.
This latest analysis comes after charity Shelter Cymru warned that families in Wales face an increased risk of homelessness after the UK government’s decision to freeze housing benefit levels.
Other suggested measures in the report included boosting economic growth, engaging more applicants with prevention measures, and scaling up rehabilitation services for people with substance abuse issues and people with convictions.
The report said: “Moving forward with all of the measures tested collectively appears from the modelling to be capable of reducing core homelessness by one half over the coming period, compared with what it would have been without any change in policies.
“The biggest wins in the longer term would come from raising the LHA and indexing it effectively, and increases in social housing allocations to homeless households, with increased direct access for core homeless households.”
Matt Downie, chief executive of Crisis, said: “This monitor demonstrates that if we are to move away from consistently firefighting with high levels of homelessness and start to turn the tide in Wales, change is imperative.
“It shows that the best chances we have of reducing homelessness is to take forward a range of policy developments – both in the Senedd and Westminster.
“As challenging as change can be, if we do not seek policy change, the numbers of people facing the dangers of homelessness across Wales will continue to rise. We must act now to prevent homelessness in the future.”
In response, the Welsh government said: “We are not accepting homelessness in Wales, and continue to take a ‘no one left out’ approach so that no one should be forced to sleep rough and are investing over £240m for homelessness prevention and housing support this year alone.
“Delivering more social housing now and for the future is a key aspect of tackling homelessness and, despite unprecedented economic challenges, we’ve committed to a record investment of more than £1.9b by the end of this Senedd term.”
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