Half of homes need heat pumps by 2040, Climate Change Committee says
Half of homes should have heat pumps by 2040 to meet climate targets, independent government advisors have said.
The Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) Seventh Carbon Budget report advised that by 2040, “around half of homes in the UK” should be heated using a heat pump, compared to around 1% in 2023.
The increase would require the annual rate of heat pump installations in existing residential properties to rise from 60,000 in 2023 to nearly 450,000 by 2030 and around 1.5 million by 2035.
The CCC also recommended that the government provide long-term funding for energy efficiency improvements to social housing, along with “targeted” support to “ensure that poorly insulated homes are not a barrier to uptake of low-carbon heating systems for low-income households”.
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By law, the government needs to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The committee provides independent advice on how much the UK should emit over five-year periods – carbon budgets – and how it might achieve this.
Assessments are made against the CCC’s “balanced pathway”, which assumes moderate behavioural change and innovation over the next 10 years.
Households making low-carbon choices should contribute to one-third of emissions reduction in 2040, the committee said.
According to its report, covering 2038 to 2042, the government should confirm that there will be “no role for hydrogen” in home heating.
It should put in place requirements on housing developers to ensure that no new properties completed from 2026 are connected to the gas grid.
The government should deliver changes to building regulations, with “stringent transition arrangements which ensure that, from 2026 at the latest, all new homes are built with low-carbon heating systems”.
The committee advised that “all new and replacement heating systems become low carbon after 2035 to ensure a fully decarbonised housing stock by 2050”.
The government is advised to introduce a “comprehensive” multi-year programme for decarbonisation of public sector buildings.
“This should set out strategic plans for when best to take the required decarbonisation actions in buildings across the public estate and should be supported by long-term capital settlements,” the report said.
Anil Sawhney, head of sustainability at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), said the body is “pleased” that the committee is “focused on decarbonising the built environment and committed to supporting the transition from gas boilers to heat pumps”.
He said that reductions from existing residential and commercial buildings “rely on heat pumps and energy efficiency measures like insulation”.
However, Mr Sawhney added: “For these installations to reach their potential, we must uphold good installation standards through the greater inclusion of skilled professionals in government-backed installation programmes.
“Delivery must also be scaled up. The committee highlighted in its 2022 report to parliament that 500,000 retrofits are required in 2025 and approximately one million each following year to meet 2030 decarbonisation targets.”
He said a “comprehensive retrofit scheme” would “prove vital towards achieving this goal”.
“Further to these latest developments, RICS calls on the UK government to introduce legislation requiring the measurement and reporting of embodied carbon in line with RICS Whole Life Carbon Assessment (WLCA) standard, as recommended by the Environmental Audit Committee,” he said.
“Setting targets is crucial, but accurately measuring progress lights the path towards reaching them,” Mr Sawhney added.
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