Made in Dagenham

Inside Housing is standing by a fish stall in Dagenham, east London, where the team behind the UKIP mayoral bid is settled, eating cockles and jellied eels. A stereotype? Peter Whittle, the party’s candidate for London mayor, and a well-spoken former journalist, is self-aware enough to refuse the jellied eels, which he says would look “a bit corny” for the photos.

“The fact is, you cannot plan when you do not know how many people will be coming to London.”

We are accompanying Mr Whittle on the campaign trail on an overcast Friday afternoon in Dagenham. According to a YouGov poll in March, Mr Whittle is in third position behind Zac Goldsmith and Sadiq Khan, with 5% of the projected vote. This is an improvement on the 2012 result in which his predecessor came fifth, with support of 2% of the electorate. Inside Housing has come along to find out if the candidate’s policies on housing are striking a greater chord with voters.

Like most London areas, Dagenham is suffering from spiralling waiting lists and a chronic shortage of affordable housing.

UKIP places the blame firmly on immigration. While his opponents Mr Goldsmith and Mr Khan have been pledging to build 50,000 to 80,000 homes a year respectively, Mr Whittle has instead said he would tackle “unprecedented” housing demand. He has refused to set a target for how many homes he would build in London if elected.

“I don’t believe in that, I think it’s meaningless,” he tells Inside Housing when pushed. “The fact is, you cannot plan when you do not know how many people will be coming to London.”

But wouldn’t he have to set a housebuilding target if he was to win the election this May? “No, I don’t think you do and I’m not being complacent. I think [housing targets are] meaningless without having a fairer migration policy.”

Mr Whittle, who privately rents in Royal Arsenal, Woolwich (he is not sure he would be able to afford a mortgage in London), is softly spoken. Unlike other members of his campaign team today, he is not wearing one of UKIP’s official loud purple and yellow striped ties. Dressed in a sharp suit, he is not as bombastic as compatriots such as Nigel Farage. However, he shares the party leader’s proclivity for cigarettes and indulges in a large glass of white wine at 4.30pm in the pub (well, it is Friday).

The UKIP campaign team has arranged a meet-and-greet with some Dagenham residents who are sympathetic to UKIP’s views. Inside Housing is unable to assess how representative these views are compared to the people of Dagenham as those we meet have been preselected by our UKIP hosts. The object of the exercise is to show Inside Housing that local people feel that mainstream politicians are not addressing ‘real’ people’s housing concerns.

Richard Kelly runs a barbershop on the main road by Dagenham East tube station and is disheartened about the housing prospects of local young people. Mr Kelly, a heavyset, world-weary figure who bought his council house in the 1980s, says he enjoys schooling his customers on his pet subjects such as immigration and how much the UK spends on the EU.

He has watched industrial decline prompt former customers to move out to cheaper areas such Clacton and Ipswich and says new people (“on benefits”) now rent former Right to Buy homes. Mr Kelly complains that his son tried to get on the council’s waiting list but was told he had no prospect of being housed.

As he continues to shave a customer’s scalp, he talks about the arrival of people of different ethnicities, who he claims stick to their own communities. “Years ago, once a person had a house, they would stay in this area; there was a London mentality, a community, pubs where you knew everyone in them,” he sighs.

According to a report by Barking and Dagenham Council in 2013, the borough has “seen unprecedented change in recent years”. Since 2001, there has been a 30% decrease in the borough’s white British population, with the black African population growing by over 20,000 – the largest increase of the black African population in London. The report says that “increasing diversity offers considerable opportunities, but the pace of change poses a number of real challenges for community cohesion”.

Mr Whittle claims his is the only party that is brave enough to stand up and tackle the immigration issue. His only standout housing policy (besides some promises about building on brownfield land and taxing empty properties) is the introduction of a five-year residency test for social tenants. Under his proposal, people would be barred from London councils’ housing registers or buying a home on City Hall land unless they have lived in the area for five years.

We stop outside a yellowing tower block in the middle of the estate, to greet Jennifer, who is living in a two-bedroom damp-infested flat with her husband and three children. She previously appeared in a UKIP mayoral candidate video, in which she talked about her problems trying to get a transfer to a larger house.

Jennifer smiles weakly and apologises self-consciously for failing to follow closely the mayoral election when we ask what her priorities are for the next London mayor. “Get this building knocked down?” she ventures.

Mr Whittle steps in. “What we talked about anyway – I’m not putting words into your mouth – is that there are too many people coming into the borough putting pressure on housing lists and local people should have priority. It’s fair to say that’s what we were talking about?” Jennifer nods. The baby starts crying.

Government data shows that 91% of social housing lettings went to UK nationals in 2014/15, a figure that remained unchanged for three years.

Inside Housing, the photographer, Mr Whittle and two of his team pack into a tiny lift to leave the building. “It’s astonishing that they didn’t put balconies on that building. I would have thought that was a requirement by now, isn’t it?” Mr Whittle asks, lighting up another cigarette when we get outside.

“All the other candidates say ‘we’ll do this and that’ but they don’t ever look at the demand side,” he says. “We’re looking at the whole housing problem through the levels of unprecedented migration; it’s putting pressure on all sorts of housing. In fact, it’s the main driver of the housing problem.”

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), London’s population is set to grow by 13% between 2012 and 2022 – the fastest growing region of England. However, the ONS also notes that just 10% of this is due to net inward migration. This is because although many people migrate to London to live and work (both from other regions and internationally), there are also large numbers of people who migrate out of London. Nine-tenths of the projected growth is due to fewer deaths than births.

Additionally, house builders have warned that limiting immigration will reduce the availability of labour and choke off housing supply.

“Well I’m sorry but I feel that employers will like uncontrolled immigration mainly because it means they can pay people really cheap wages, it’s exploitative,” Mr Whittle replies, when Inside Housing brings this up.

UKIP’s pledge to tackle immigration has struck a chord with some of Dagenham residents. “At least with UKIP, they are saying things that are possible to be done,” Mr Kelly says, while shaving a second customer’s hair.

Are they possible, though? Inside Housing presses Mr Whittle to explain how he would seek to control immigration when, as London mayor, he would have no power at all over the UK’s immigration policy.

“Well, no, but alright… I take what you’re saying,” he says. “[But] the mayor, the most important think he or she has is influence. What I would do is absolutely stand up for what people’s concerns are, lobby and tell them what the position is in London.

“You say the mayor can’t control immigration, but the fact is that one of the most important things the mayor has is unique influence to stand up for Londoners.”

City Hall officials are currently studying the mayoral candidates’ manifestos and preparing to brief whoever claims victory. The polls say UKIP is gaining increasing support in the capital. However, it remains to be seen how many Londoners will prefer limiting immigration to the other parties’ more ambitious targets for building new homes.