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What might a new government mean for housing research?
The Labour Party has big ambitions, and research will be crucial to achieve them, writes Bekah Ryder, research and insights manager at Altair
Bekah Ryder is research and insights manager at Altair
A new government, new opportunities for change, with new (and some of the same) challenges. While we have what was set out in Labour’s manifesto, within this there are gaps and a lack of detail, as well as the potential for post-election changes.
In previous years, New Labour governments were big on commissioning research and gathering data to inform evidence-based policymaking, wanting to be guided by “what works and why”. While the coalition and Conservative governments scaled this back (and didn’t always publish what was commissioned), research has still helped to evaluate the impact of policies and approaches.
Research can help us understand the world and shape a better one. This is why Altair is pleased to sponsor Thinkhouse’s Early Career Researcher’s Prize (ECRP), alongside Inside Housing, L&Q and Aster Group. We see the value in research and evidence informing policy, practice and innovation.
Previous winners have included Dr Philip Graham, whose research focused on adjustable housing, and Rachelle Earwaker and Joe Elliott, whose paper outlined the capital investment required to lift low-income private renters out of poverty through accessing social rented housing.
Even earlier winners were Anthony Breach for his paper on flexible zones in planning and Anya Martin, who examined outcomes for children growing up in social housing using longitudinal survey data.
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With a new parliamentary term before us, and fresh faces on the benches, what are the current questions in social housing that research can help us answer?
On development of social housing, Labour has made it clear that they want to “make changes to the Affordable Homes Programme to ensure that it delivers more homes from existing funding”. What might these changes be? What other mechanisms might be put in place to deliver more homes for the same level of funding?
A recent paper from the New Economic Foundation (NEF), published on Thinkhouse, highlights how this might be achieved through greater flexibility of future programmes, including relaxing rules on acquisitions and removing the de facto Treasury veto on capital investment by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government. With the former chief executive of NEF now a Labour MP, perhaps this will form part of the new government’s thinking.
“With a new parliamentary term before us, and fresh faces on the benches, what are the current questions in social housing that research can help us answer?”
Linked to development, one of the central planks to Labour’s plans for growth are planning reforms – the prime minister recently reiterated that his party will reform planning to “unlock the economic potential of the country” and it was central to Rachel Reeves’ first speech as the (first female) chancellor.
This includes reintroducing housing targets, revising the National Planning Policy Framework, ensuring up-to-date local plans, releasing ‘grey belt’ land for development, a new generation of new towns, appointing 300 new town planners, and giving new planning powers to combined authorities.
How drastic will such reform be? What will the new planning powers be? How will the grey belt be defined? And when it comes to staffing, will 300 planners be enough, and how quickly can they be recruited and trained?
Early indications are that reform will start immediately and work within the current framework as much as possible. A well-resourced planning system can be expected to bring added value, with the Royal Town Planning Institute estimating that a better-resourced sector could deliver a planning premium of £70bn in additional value over 10 years, by creating better communities.
There are also some huge challenges and questions around the ageing population and reforming adult social care, with Labour saying they will create a National Care Service.
When you look at population change over the next 10 years, the figures are startling: the Office for National Statistics projects that the population aged 65 and over will grow by 2.7 million people from 2024 to 2034, a 21% increase. Older people aged 65 and over will make up 22% of the population (compared to 19% in 2024), accounting for 68% of population growth in this period.
“If you are a researcher, or working with research, and have a piece of work that you are particularly proud of then please consider submitting to the Thinkhouse ECRP”
Research commissioned by Independent Age suggests that there will be a tripling of people aged 65 and over living in the private rented sector, from 4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2040, with the potential for relative poverty among older people to increase. This could mean almost two-thirds (64.2%) of all older people living in poverty will be living within rented sectors.
As we all age in an ageing society, what support is needed for the population and who should pay for this? How will Labour deliver a ‘home-first’ approach to social care if increasing numbers of older people are in unsuitable or unaffordable housing?
These are all big questions, and only a selection of the many facing the new government and the sector. We hope research will play a key part in helping to answer them.
If you are a researcher, or working with research, and have a piece of work that you are particularly proud of then please consider submitting to the Thinkhouse ECRP. This could include think pieces, review papers, research-based business cases/board papers/insight pieces, original empirical research or investigative journalism-type pieces.
The deadline for submissions is Thursday 26 September and you can read more about requirements on Thinkhouse’s website.
I’m excited for what the new government might mean for (social) housing and research, and for seeing how the future agenda might be shaped by this year’s Thinkhouse ECRP submissions.
Bekah Ryder, research and insights manager, Altair
